We are grateful to everyone who attended the forums and helped to make them so successful. These sessions were arranged at short notice, specifically to allow us to provide direct first hand commentary on the deteriorating economic outlook and an indication of the assets and sectors that we believe are best placed to weather the economic storm and benefit from the current and anticipated next stages of the business cycle.

We are pleased to make the slides from the events available below along with the following summary of the questions that arose (click on the titles to access the slides):

Questions and Answers

Tim Price - An investment approach for a brave new world

Tim Price is director of investment at PFP Wealth Management in London.

Presentation conclusions:

• The UK economy is poorly placed to withstand a looming economic slowdown
• Property prices in the UK and US are likely to continue to fall for some years
• The long term returns from equity investing are often exaggerated
• In equity terms, focus on key themes (monopoly and scarcity) rather than broad market exposure
• Consider a much broader combination of disparate asset classes – including absolute return / hedge funds and real assets – and reduce dependency on equities alone: the ‘Yale’ approach

For further details or queries, please email Tim Price  

James Ferguson - The end of inflation

James Ferguson is an economist and strategist at brokerage Pali International in London. James is also a regular contributor to Money Week magazine.

Presentation conclusions:

• The current financial environment is strongly supportive for Gilts
• Inflationary pressure is fast subsiding
• The UK property bear market is likely to last longer than many expect

Andrew Seaman - The credit crunch and its impact on currencies

Andrew Seaman is a portfolio manager at hedge fund managers Stratton Street Capital LLP in London. Stratton Street are specialists in Asian hedge funds. Andrew helps manage the firm’s Asian Bond Fund and Renminbi Fund.

Presentation conclusions:

• Expect significant revaluation of international currencies following the credit crisis
• All things being equal, expect the currencies of economies with strong current account balances to outperform those with large current account deficits
• Preferred currencies / regions: China; Japan; Singapore
• Least favourite currencies / regions: UK, Australia, New Zealand
• Worst prospective currency / region: Turkey

Greg Taylor - Financial Risk Management

Greg Taylor is a director at Financial Risk Management (FRM). FRM is a fund of hedge funds and invests approximately $15 billion globally on behalf of institutions and private investors.

Presentation conclusions:

• Many hedge funds no longer require leverage to generate meaningful returns
• The ongoing deleveraging of hedge funds warrants caution on the part of investors
• Many credit strategies involving the capital structure of companies, particularly those investing in bank debt, offer high upside with relatively low risk
• As the hedge fund and investment banking industry contracts, there will be significant opportunities for the ‘last men standing’

David Thompson - An introduction to hedge funds

David Thompson is a partner at fund of hedge fund specialists Collingham Capital Management in London.

Presentation conclusions:

• Hedge funds focus on delivering absolute rather than market relative returns
• Avoid funds overly dependent on the ‘carry trade’ (cheap financing and leverage)
• Consider both strategy and manager selection – good funds of funds can do both
• Good funds of hedge funds offer diversification benefits and lower volatility